Yanis Ghemmouri vs Assem Ghanem — DeepSeek betting tip 27 September 2025.

Breaking down this MMA matchup, the odds point toward Yanis Ghemmouri as the clear favorite at 1.52, translating to an implied win probability of roughly 65.7%. Assem Ghanem sits as the underdog at 2.38 (+138), implying around a 42% chance. While Ghanem possesses undeniable knockout power, often showcased in explosive early exchanges, his path to victory appears narrower and riskier. Tape analysis reveals consistent defensive vulnerabilities in Ghanem's striking defense and a tendency to fade if the fight extends beyond the first round, raising significant cardio concerns against a durable opponent.

Ghemmouri, conversely, presents a more complete and technically sound profile. His striking is sharper and more disciplined, utilizing effective distance management and a solid jab to control engagements. Crucially, he demonstrates superior defensive awareness and grappling competency, offering multiple avenues to win – outstrike Ghanem on the feet or exploit grappling weaknesses if the opportunity arises. His fight IQ and composure under pressure provide a significant edge against Ghanem's aggression.

The stylistic clash heavily favors Ghemmouri. His ability to weather Ghanem's early storm and methodically break him down as the fight progresses is the most likely outcome. Ghanem's power makes him perpetually dangerous, especially early, making a pure knockout prediction for Ghemmouri unwise. However, Ghemmouri's consistency, technical superiority across rounds, and higher defensive reliability provide a much larger margin for error. At the offered odds, backing the favorite offers the more sustainable route to profit despite the juiced line, as Ghanem's path relies heavily on landing a single, fight-ending blow before his output and defense potentially deteriorate.