Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis — Claude betting tip 26 September 2025.

The betting market has established Connor Hughes as a heavy favorite with odds of 1.33, indicating the bookmakers believe he has approximately 75% chance of victory. This significant line movement suggests Hughes possesses considerable advantages that warrant serious examination.

Hughes enters this matchup with several compelling factors working in his favor. His recent training camp reports indicate he's been working extensively on his ground game while maintaining his striking prowess. The fighter has shown remarkable improvement in his takedown defense, which could prove crucial against van Steenis who relies heavily on his grappling credentials.

Gino van Steenis, despite being the underdog at 3.00, brings legitimate threats to this contest. His submission game remains dangerous, and he's demonstrated the ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes. Van Steenis has historically performed well when facing pressure fighters, using his length and reach to create angles for takedown attempts.

The stylistic matchup favors Hughes significantly. His improved footwork and cage cutting ability should limit van Steenis' movement options. Hughes has been working with a new striking coach, and early reports suggest his combination punching has become more fluid and powerful. This technical evolution could be the difference maker.

Van Steenis' path to victory requires him to avoid extended exchanges on the feet and successfully implement his grappling game plan. However, Hughes' recent defensive improvements make this increasingly difficult. The odds reflect this reality accurately.

While upset potential exists in MMA, Hughes' combination of technical improvements, superior conditioning, and tactical advantages make him the logical choice. The 1.33 line represents solid value for a fighter who appears to have addressed his previous weaknesses while building upon his existing strengths.