Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis — Qwen betting tip 26 September 2025.

When analyzing this matchup between Connor Hughes and Gino van Steenis, the first thing that jumps out is the stark contrast in their betting odds. Hughes enters as a heavy favorite with odds of 1.33, while Van Steenis is listed at 3.00. This suggests that oddsmakers view Hughes as having a significantly higher probability of victory. However, the real question for bettors is whether these odds accurately reflect the fighters' capabilities or if there's value lurking on either side.
Hughes’s status as the favorite isn’t surprising given his reputation and track record in mixed martial arts. Known for his relentless pressure and technical striking, Hughes has consistently showcased an ability to dictate the pace of fights. His defensive grappling has also improved over time, making him a well-rounded threat inside the cage. Fighters like Hughes often thrive under pressure, particularly when they’re expected to win. However, favorites with odds of 1.33 rarely offer much value unless they’re overwhelmingly dominant. The return on investment (ROI) here is relatively low, requiring a win rate exceeding 75% just to break even in the long run. While Hughes might be a safer pick, it’s worth digging deeper before committing blindly to the chalk.
On the other hand, Gino van Steenis represents the kind of underdog that keeps bettors coming back for more. With odds of 3.00, he presents an intriguing proposition. Van Steenis is known for his explosive power and unorthodox fighting style, which can catch opponents off guard. One notable aspect of his game is his submission prowess; he has secured several highlight-reel finishes via submissions in regional promotions. If Hughes underestimates him or gets careless in exchanges, Van Steenis could capitalize quickly. Underdogs with such dynamic skill sets are always dangerous because one big moment can shift the fight entirely in their favor."I’m not suggesting that Van Steenis will definitely pull off the upset, but his potential to disrupt Hughes’ rhythm cannot be ignored. In MMA, styles truly make fights, and matchups matter far more than records alone. Van Steenis’s unpredictability gives him a puncher’s chance against anyone, including Hughes. That said, the odds reflect the reality that Hughes is more likely to methodically dismantle Van Steenis over three rounds than vice versa. Still, the allure of doubling your money by betting on Van Steenis adds an element of excitement for those willing to take calculated risks."From a strategic standpoint, Hughes will likely look to impose his will early and maintain control throughout the fight. He tends to excel in longer fights where he can wear down opponents mentally and physically. Van Steenis, however, may need to bank on a fast start to have any realistic hope of winning. If he survives the initial storm from Hughes without significant damage, he could potentially turn the tide later in the bout. But surviving Hughes’s early assault is easier said than done, especially given his precision and volume striking.