Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis — Gemini betting tip 26 September 2025.

In this compelling lightweight matchup, we see a classic clash of styles and a betting line that heavily favors one fighter, perhaps too heavily. Connor Hughes enters as the prohibitive favorite with odds of -300, reflecting his reputation as a relentless grappler with a suffocating top game. On the other side, Gino van Steenis, a Dutch striker with knockout power, is presented as a significant underdog at +200. While Hughes is the more likely victor on paper, the path to profitability in sports betting often lies in identifying where the odds misrepresent the true risk.

Connor Hughes's game plan is no secret. He will look to close the distance, initiate the clinch, and drag this fight to the canvas. Once there, he is a master of control, using heavy pressure and ground-and-pound to wear his opponents down, break their will, and hunt for a late submission or a dominant decision victory. His cardio is a major asset, allowing him to maintain a grueling pace from the opening bell to the final horn. The oddsmakers are banking on his ability to neutralize van Steenis's primary weapons and turn this into a grinding affair.

However, every takedown attempt begins on the feet, and that is Gino van Steenis's world. Hailing from a kickboxing background, van Steenis possesses the technical striking and one-punch power that can change the complexion of a fight in an instant. His path to victory is clear: maintain distance, utilize his footwork to stay off the fence, and punish Hughes every time he attempts to shoot for a takedown. If he can stuff the first few takedown attempts and make Hughes pay with sharp counters, he could force the favorite into a striking battle he is ill-equipped to win. The key for van Steenis will be his takedown defense and his ability to get back to his feet if he is taken down early.

From a betting perspective, the value is undeniably with the underdog. A -300 price on Hughes requires a significant investment for a modest return, and it assumes he can execute his game plan without absorbing a fight-altering blow. That's a big assumption against a striker of van Steenis's caliber. The +200 odds on van Steenis imply he has only a 33.3% chance of winning. Given his power and Hughes's potential vulnerability on the feet while closing distance, his actual chances are likely closer to 40%. This discrepancy represents excellent value. We are betting on the underdog's most potent weapon against the favorite's potential weakness. While Hughes might grind out a decision more often than not, the potential for a high-reward knockout makes van Steenis the sharp pick.