Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis — DeepSeek betting tip 26 September 2025.

Connor Hughes enters as a significant favorite at 1.33, translating to an implied win probability of roughly 75%. This reflects Hughes' likely advantages in wrestling control, top pressure, and potentially superior fight IQ honed against tougher competition. His path involves closing the distance, securing takedowns, and grinding out van Steenis on the mat or finding ground-and-pound opportunities.

However, Gino van Steenis presents a compelling underdog value at 3.00 (implied 33.3%). A dangerous striker with a strong Dutch kickboxing base, his 4-inch reach advantage could prove pivotal if he can enforce range and keep the fight standing. His TDD (Takedown Defense) will be critical. Hughes' negative odds offer minimal return for the perceived risk, while van Steenis' payout is substantial if he lands a significant strike early or consistently defends Hughes' grappling.

MMA inherently carries higher upset potential than many sports. Van Steenis possesses the proven knockout power to end the fight instantly. While Hughes is the more proven commodity, the odds undervalue van Steenis' striking threat and the chaotic nature of the sport. Betting value clearly lies with the underdog here, accepting the higher risk for the significantly better potential reward given van Steenis' fight-ending capabilities.