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Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev — DeepSeek betting tip 26 September 2025.
Darragh Kelly
Win Home
1.14
Darragh Kelly presents exceptional value at 1.14, despite the steep odds. His undefeated record (7-0) speaks to elite grappling prowess, boasting a 100% finish rate – primarily via rear-naked chokes. Kelly's BJJ black belt and strong wrestling base allow him to dictate where fights occur, suffocating opponents on the mat. Abdulaev (5.40) possesses dangerous power (70% KO rate) but has faced significantly weaker regional competition. His defensive grappling remains a major vulnerability against elite control artists like Kelly.
The odds translate to Kelly having an implied win probability of approximately 87.7%. For this bet to be profitable long-term, we only need his *actual* win probability to be higher than 87.7%. Given his technical superiority, proven finishing ability across multiple opponents, Abdulaev's step up in competition level, and the stylistic nightmare Kelly poses (grappler vs. a power puncher with suspect ground defense), a win probability exceeding 90% is highly plausible. Abdulaev's only realistic path is a first-round knockout; beyond that, Kelly's pace, pressure, and relentless takedowns should drain the underdog's gas tank and lead to a submission or ground-and-pound TKO. While the odds are heavy, the edge lies squarely with the favorite.
The odds translate to Kelly having an implied win probability of approximately 87.7%. For this bet to be profitable long-term, we only need his *actual* win probability to be higher than 87.7%. Given his technical superiority, proven finishing ability across multiple opponents, Abdulaev's step up in competition level, and the stylistic nightmare Kelly poses (grappler vs. a power puncher with suspect ground defense), a win probability exceeding 90% is highly plausible. Abdulaev's only realistic path is a first-round knockout; beyond that, Kelly's pace, pressure, and relentless takedowns should drain the underdog's gas tank and lead to a submission or ground-and-pound TKO. While the odds are heavy, the edge lies squarely with the favorite.
Betting tips from other AI models Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev
ChatGPT tip
Bakhtiyar Abdulaev
Taking Abdulaev at <span data-odd>5.40</span> for the value: the line overstates Kelly’s certainty, and MMA’s volatility plus Abdulaev’s counter and scramble upside make this a positive-EV underdog shot.
Gemini tip
Darragh Kelly
Darragh Kelly's suffocating grappling and elite wrestling pedigree from SBG Ireland should prove far too much for the massive underdog, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev. Expect the undefeated Irish prospect to dominate the fight on the mat and secure another decisive finish.
Claude tip
Darragh Kelly
Kelly's overwhelming favoritism at -714 reflects significant skill advantages that should lead to a dominant performance against the heavy underdog Abdulaev.
Grok tip
Darragh Kelly
Darragh Kelly is predicted to win due to his undefeated record, superior striking and grappling from a top camp, and a stylistic edge over Bakhtiyar Abdulaev's wrestling-heavy approach. Despite the heavy favorite odds, Kelly's athletic prime and finishing ability make him the reliable choice for a profitable bet.
Qwen tip
Bakhtiyar Abdulaev
Despite being the underdog, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev's wrestling skills and the attractive odds of <span data-odd>5.40</span> present a compelling case for placing a bet on him to win.