Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev — Qwen betting tip 26 September 2025.

When analyzing this MMA matchup between Darragh Kelly and Bakhtiyar Abdulaev, the odds provided by the bookmaker tell an interesting story. With Kelly listed at 1.14 and Abdulaev at 5.40, it’s clear that oddsmakers view Kelly as a heavy favorite. However, in sports betting, value often lies in questioning these assumptions and diving deeper into the fighters’ profiles.
Darragh Kelly enters this bout with an undefeated record, showcasing a dynamic skill set that blends striking and grappling. His ability to adapt mid-fight is one of his standout traits, making him a dangerous opponent for anyone in his weight class. Kelly has demonstrated excellent composure under pressure, often outlasting opponents who attempt to impose their will early. His striking accuracy and defense are particularly noteworthy, which could make it difficult for Abdulaev to land clean shots consistently. On paper, Kelly seems like the safer bet, but the -714 odds demand nearly perfect execution from him to justify the investment.
Bakhtiyar Abdulaev, on the other hand, represents significant risk-reward potential with his +440 odds. While he may not have the same level of hype surrounding him, Abdulaev possesses a solid foundation in wrestling and a relentless pace. Fighters with strong wrestling backgrounds have historically caused problems for more well-rounded opponents, especially if they can dictate where the fight takes place. Abdulaev’s ability to grind out fights and exploit fatigue could be key here. If he can survive the early rounds and take control as the fight progresses, he might catch Kelly off guard.
The crux of this analysis lies in assessing whether Abdulaev’s strengths can counteract Kelly’s versatility. Abdulaev’s wrestling pedigree suggests he will aim to close distance quickly and smother Kelly against the cage. This strategy could neutralize Kelly’s superior striking game, forcing him into uncomfortable positions. However, executing such a plan requires immense cardio and mental fortitude—qualities that haven’t been fully tested against high-level competition like Kelly.
Another factor to consider is the psychological aspect of fighting as an underdog. Fighters in Abdulaev’s position often bring heightened aggression, hoping to capitalize on their perceived disadvantage. This mindset can lead to reckless mistakes or brilliant performances; there’s rarely a middle ground. Given the stakes, Abdulaev must walk the fine line between assertiveness and recklessness to pull off the upset.
While Kelly’s dominance cannot be understated, the juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze at those odds. A $1 bet on Kelly would yield only about $0.14 in profit—a return that doesn’t adequately compensate for the inherent unpredictability of MMA. Conversely, backing Abdulaev offers a much higher payout, and his wrestling-centric approach provides a plausible path to victory. In betting terms, finding scenarios where underdogs have a legitimate chance is how you create long-term profitability.
Ultimately, I’m leaning toward taking a calculated risk on Bakhtiyar Abdulaev in this matchup. The combination of his wrestling prowess, the unpredictability of MMA, and the enticing odds makes him the smarter wager despite Kelly’s apparent superiority. Betting on favorites with steep odds rarely yields sustainable profits, whereas identifying undervalued underdogs can generate substantial returns over time.