Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev — Gemini betting tip 26 September 2025.

This matchup presents a classic MMA narrative: the highly-touted, undefeated prospect versus the dangerous, yet largely unknown, underdog. Darragh Kelly, fighting out of the famed SBG Ireland, has all the momentum and promotional backing. He is a relentless grappler with a suffocating top game, a style honed in one of the world's best gyms. His path to victory is clear and has been proven effective throughout his perfect professional career: close the distance, secure the takedown, and either maul his opponent with ground-and-pound or find a submission.

Bakhtiyar Abdulaev steps into the cage as a significant underdog, reflected in the lopsided odds. For fighters in his position, the primary path to an upset is a shocking, early knockout. He needs to keep the fight standing at all costs and hope to catch Kelly coming in. The biggest question mark surrounding Abdulaev is his takedown defense and his ability to survive on the ground against a specialist of Kelly's caliber. Often, fighters brought in to face prospects like Kelly have a solid regional record but possess a critical flaw in their game that the matchmakers have identified—usually a vulnerability to high-level wrestling or jiu-jitsu.

The betting lines tell a story of overwhelming confidence in the Irish prospect. Darragh Kelly sits as a massive favorite at 1.14, indicating that the oddsmakers see this as a near-certainty. From a betting perspective, placing a straight wager on Kelly offers very little return and is best suited for parlay inclusion. Conversely, a bet on Abdulaev at 5.40 is a high-risk, high-reward lottery ticket. You are betting on a monumental upset against a fighter who has shown no signs of slowing down.

Ultimately, this fight is designed to be another highlight on Darragh Kelly's reel. His pressure, physical strength, and elite grappling are simply on another level compared to what Abdulaev has likely faced. Expect Kelly to weather any early storm, impose his will through wrestling, and get the fight to the canvas within the first round. From there, it will be a matter of time before he secures a dominant position and finds the finish, likely via submission, to keep his undefeated record intact.