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Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev — Grok betting tip 26 September 2025.
Darragh Kelly
Win Home
1.14
As we gear up for this intriguing MMA clash on September 26, 2025, between Darragh Kelly and Bakhtiyar Abdulaev, the betting landscape heavily favors the Irish prospect. Kelly enters as the massive favorite at 1.14, implying a strong belief in his dominance, while Abdulaev sits as the underdog at 5.40. This matchup pits a rising star against a battle-tested veteran, and dissecting their styles and records reveals why Kelly might be worth the juice despite the low payout.
Darragh Kelly, hailing from Ireland, boasts an undefeated professional record of 6-0, with a knack for finishing fights early. His background in SBG Ireland, the same gym that produced Conor McGregor, has honed his striking precision and grappling prowess. Kelly's last outing saw him submit Mathias Diogo via rear-naked choke in the second round, showcasing his ability to transition seamlessly from stand-up to ground work. At 25 years old, he's in his athletic prime, with explosive power and cardio that could overwhelm opponents in a three-round affair. What stands out is his reach advantage—standing at 6'0" with a 74-inch reach, he can dictate the pace from distance, peppering foes with jabs and kicks before closing in for takedowns.
On the flip side, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev, a 30-year-old from Dagestan, brings a solid 9-2 record to the table, with experience in promotions like Brave CF. His wrestling pedigree is undeniable, rooted in the sambo traditions of his homeland, and he's secured multiple wins via submission. Abdulaev's durability is a key asset; he's never been finished in his losses, which came by decision against high-level competition. However, his striking defense has shown vulnerabilities, as evidenced in his bout against a rangy striker where he absorbed significant damage before rallying. Facing Kelly, who blends elite striking with submission threats, Abdulaev might struggle to impose his grappling game if he can't close the distance without eating shots.
From a betting perspective, laying the chalk on Kelly at 1.14 means betting about $7.14 to win $1, which isn't glamorous but aligns with value if you believe in his upside. The implied probability here is around 87.7% for Kelly, and based on his trajectory, that seems justified. Abdulaev's path to victory hinges on dragging this into a grueling wrestle-fest, but Kelly's takedown defense (hovering at 80% in recent fights) and scrambling ability could neutralize that. Stylistically, this reminds me of matchups where a hyped prospect like Kelly dismantles a grinder—think Sean O'Malley vs. a durable vet early in his career.
Intangibles play a role too: Kelly's fighting out of a top camp with momentum, while Abdulaev might face jet lag or adaptation issues in what could be a Bellator or PFL event (assuming based on the date). The fight's at 16:00 UTC, potentially an early prelim, but that doesn't change the fundamentals. For bettors chasing profits, parlaying Kelly with other favorites could amplify returns, or consider prop bets like Kelly by submission at potentially juicy odds. But straight up, I'm not buying the upset hype; Abdulaev's experience is valuable, but Kelly's tools and form suggest he'll extend his streak.
In summary, while the odds scream caution for value hunters, Kelly's blend of youth, skill, and finishing ability makes him the smart pick. Expect him to control the fight standing, stuff takedowns, and possibly lock in a submission late in round two. For those betting $1, the payout might be modest, but consistent wins on favorites build bankrolls over time. If you're feeling bold, a small flyer on Abdulaev could yield big if he pulls the rabbit, but data points to Kelly cruising to victory.
Darragh Kelly, hailing from Ireland, boasts an undefeated professional record of 6-0, with a knack for finishing fights early. His background in SBG Ireland, the same gym that produced Conor McGregor, has honed his striking precision and grappling prowess. Kelly's last outing saw him submit Mathias Diogo via rear-naked choke in the second round, showcasing his ability to transition seamlessly from stand-up to ground work. At 25 years old, he's in his athletic prime, with explosive power and cardio that could overwhelm opponents in a three-round affair. What stands out is his reach advantage—standing at 6'0" with a 74-inch reach, he can dictate the pace from distance, peppering foes with jabs and kicks before closing in for takedowns.
On the flip side, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev, a 30-year-old from Dagestan, brings a solid 9-2 record to the table, with experience in promotions like Brave CF. His wrestling pedigree is undeniable, rooted in the sambo traditions of his homeland, and he's secured multiple wins via submission. Abdulaev's durability is a key asset; he's never been finished in his losses, which came by decision against high-level competition. However, his striking defense has shown vulnerabilities, as evidenced in his bout against a rangy striker where he absorbed significant damage before rallying. Facing Kelly, who blends elite striking with submission threats, Abdulaev might struggle to impose his grappling game if he can't close the distance without eating shots.
From a betting perspective, laying the chalk on Kelly at 1.14 means betting about $7.14 to win $1, which isn't glamorous but aligns with value if you believe in his upside. The implied probability here is around 87.7% for Kelly, and based on his trajectory, that seems justified. Abdulaev's path to victory hinges on dragging this into a grueling wrestle-fest, but Kelly's takedown defense (hovering at 80% in recent fights) and scrambling ability could neutralize that. Stylistically, this reminds me of matchups where a hyped prospect like Kelly dismantles a grinder—think Sean O'Malley vs. a durable vet early in his career.
Intangibles play a role too: Kelly's fighting out of a top camp with momentum, while Abdulaev might face jet lag or adaptation issues in what could be a Bellator or PFL event (assuming based on the date). The fight's at 16:00 UTC, potentially an early prelim, but that doesn't change the fundamentals. For bettors chasing profits, parlaying Kelly with other favorites could amplify returns, or consider prop bets like Kelly by submission at potentially juicy odds. But straight up, I'm not buying the upset hype; Abdulaev's experience is valuable, but Kelly's tools and form suggest he'll extend his streak.
In summary, while the odds scream caution for value hunters, Kelly's blend of youth, skill, and finishing ability makes him the smart pick. Expect him to control the fight standing, stuff takedowns, and possibly lock in a submission late in round two. For those betting $1, the payout might be modest, but consistent wins on favorites build bankrolls over time. If you're feeling bold, a small flyer on Abdulaev could yield big if he pulls the rabbit, but data points to Kelly cruising to victory.
Betting tips from other AI models Darragh Kelly vs Bakhtiyar Abdulaev
ChatGPT tip
Bakhtiyar Abdulaev
Taking Abdulaev at <span data-odd>5.40</span> for the value: the line overstates Kelly’s certainty, and MMA’s volatility plus Abdulaev’s counter and scramble upside make this a positive-EV underdog shot.
Gemini tip
Darragh Kelly
Darragh Kelly's suffocating grappling and elite wrestling pedigree from SBG Ireland should prove far too much for the massive underdog, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev. Expect the undefeated Irish prospect to dominate the fight on the mat and secure another decisive finish.
Claude tip
Darragh Kelly
Kelly's overwhelming favoritism at -714 reflects significant skill advantages that should lead to a dominant performance against the heavy underdog Abdulaev.
DeepSeek tip
Darragh Kelly
Kelly's elite grappling, undefeated record, and stylistic advantage over the power-reliant Abdulaev offer significant value despite heavy odds, as his win probability significantly exceeds the implied 87.7%.
Qwen tip
Bakhtiyar Abdulaev
Despite being the underdog, Bakhtiyar Abdulaev's wrestling skills and the attractive odds of <span data-odd>5.40</span> present a compelling case for placing a bet on him to win.