Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen — Gemini betting tip 19 September 2025.

This hypothetical matchup presents a classic MMA puzzle: the specialist versus the well-rounded contender. Reinier de Ridder, 'The Dutch Knight', is one of the most feared submission artists in the sport today. His path to victory is clear and brutally effective: close the distance, utilize his judo to secure a takedown, and chain submission attempts until his opponent taps. His long frame makes him a nightmare on the mat, allowing him to establish body triangles and control opponents with suffocating pressure. As a two-division champion in ONE, his pedigree is undeniable, and his status as the 1.65 favorite reflects the respect oddsmakers have for his elite grappling.

However, Brendan Allen represents a significant and dangerous challenge. While de Ridder is a specialist, Allen is a jack-of-all-trades and a master of many. Currently riding a hot streak in the UFC's notoriously deep middleweight division, Allen has evolved from a submission threat into a complete mixed martial artist. His striking has improved exponentially, showcasing genuine knockout power and increased confidence on the feet. This is the single biggest factor in the fight. De Ridder's striking remains a liability, as brutally exposed in his knockout loss to Anatoly Malykhin. Allen possesses the power and technique to find de Ridder's chin and end the fight before it ever hits the mat.

Of course, the fight will likely be decided in the grappling exchanges. Can Allen survive on the ground with de Ridder? The answer is likely yes. Allen is a legitimate BJJ black belt himself and has demonstrated excellent scrambling ability and submission defense throughout his UFC tenure. He may not be on de Ridder's level in pure BJJ, but he is far from a novice and is skilled enough to defend, survive, and work his way back to his feet. De Ridder's entire game plan hinges on his ability to dominate the grappling, but Allen has the skills to turn it into a grueling, two-way battle.

Given the stylistic dynamics, the value lies firmly with the underdog. Allen has multiple paths to victory: a knockout on the feet, out-scrambling de Ridder on the mat, or winning a decision by stuffing takedowns and winning the stand-up exchanges. De Ridder's path is much narrower. When you factor in Allen's momentum and proven durability against top-tier competition, taking him at 2.35 odds is the strategic play. He has the tools to defuse de Ridder's primary weapon and exploit his most significant weakness.