Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen — Grok betting tip 19 September 2025.

When it comes to MMA betting, the matchup between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen on September 18, 2025, is one that has fans buzzing. De Ridder, the Dutch grappling wizard, enters as the favorite with odds of 1.65, meaning you'd need to bet $155 to win $100. On the flip side, Allen sits as the underdog at 2.35, offering a potential $135 profit on a $100 wager. This middleweight clash pits de Ridder's elite submission game against Allen's well-rounded striking and wrestling prowess, and as a betting expert, I'm leaning towards the value in the underdog here.

Let's break down de Ridder's strengths first. Known for his time in ONE Championship, where he held titles in two divisions, de Ridder is a judo black belt with a nasty ground game. He's finished 12 of his 17 wins by submission, showcasing his ability to drag fights to the mat and dominate. His last few outings have been impressive, including a quick arm-triangle choke victory that reminded everyone of his technical superiority on the ground. At 6'4" with a 79-inch reach, he can control distance and use his length to set up takedowns. However, his striking defense has been questioned in the past— he's been clipped before, and against a power puncher like Allen, that could be a vulnerability.

Brendan Allen, the American from Louisiana, brings a different flavor to this fight. With a record of 23-5, he's on a hot streak in the UFC, winning six of his last seven. Allen's grappling is no joke either; he's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with 12 submission wins himself. But what sets him apart is his striking volume and power—he averages 3.5 significant strikes per minute and has knockout wins that highlight his finishing ability. His wrestling allows him to dictate where the fight goes, and unlike de Ridder, who sometimes struggles in prolonged stand-up exchanges, Allen thrives in the pocket. Remember his TKO over Paul Craig? That showed his ability to mix levels and overwhelm opponents.

From a betting perspective, the odds feel a bit off to me. De Ridder is transitioning from ONE to potentially UFC-level competition, and while his skills are top-tier, Allen has been battle-tested against UFC's middleweight elite like Chris Curtis and Andre Muniz. De Ridder's chin hasn't been truly tested against heavy hitters, and Allen's 69% takedown defense could keep this fight standing, where he holds the edge. If Allen stuffs early takedowns and turns this into a striking affair, he could wear de Ridder down over three rounds or find a finish.

Statistically, de Ridder lands takedowns at a 55% clip, but against someone like Allen, who boasts an 80% takedown defense in recent fights, that might not cut it. Allen's cardio is solid, averaging fights going into later rounds without gassing, whereas de Ridder has shown some fatigue in longer bouts. The fight being at middleweight plays to Allen's strengths, as he's more comfortable here than de Ridder, who has fought up at light heavyweight.

For bettors, this screams value on Allen. The 2.35 underdog line offers solid returns, and with my $1 bet simulation, I'd place it on Allen for a potential $1.35 profit. Sure, de Ridder could snatch a submission early, but I see Allen's experience and striking giving him the upset win via decision or late TKO. It's a close one, but the smart money is on the dog in this spot.

In terms of intangibles, Allen's momentum can't be ignored—he's climbing the ranks with purpose, while de Ridder might face some ring rust or adjustment to new rulesets. Fans love these grappler vs. striker matchups, and this one has all the makings of a barnburner. If you're betting, consider live options too; if de Ridder fails early takedowns, Allen's price will skyrocket in-play.