Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa — ChatGPT betting tip 28 September 2025.

Market tells a story here: Josias Musasa is the favorite at 1.65, with Colby Thicknesse the underdog at 2.31, and the draw a lottery ticket at 50.00. Translating those numbers to implied probabilities gives roughly 60.6% Musasa, 43.3% Thicknesse, and 2.0% draw, a combined 105.9% that reflects the bookmaker’s hold. The key question for a $1 bet is simple: does Musasa actually win this matchup more than about 60.6% of the time?

In typical three-round MMA fights, favorites in this price band tend to prevail around the low-to-mid 60% range, especially when they have multiple minute-winning tools: pressure behind a steady jab and low kicks, the ability to dictate cage position, and some wrestling or clinch control to bank rounds when the exchanges are close. Markets aren’t omniscient, but they are decent aggregators of public and sharp sentiment; a line parked near 1.65 often signals a fighter expected to win the slow moments as much as the big moments.

Underdogs like Thicknesse at 2.31 are frequently live if they carry one-shot power, tricky submissions in transitions, or a cardio edge that can flip late momentum. But underdog value needs a credible path to exceed a 43.3% baseline. Without a demonstrable, repeatable edge—elite defensive wrestling to deny control time, or pronounced speed and timing advantages—an underdog priced this modestly can be more name than substance.

From a round-to-round lens, the favorite’s pathway is clearer: win positioning battles, mix levels, touch the body, and finish stronger down the stretch. That style produces clean optics for judges and reduces variance. The underdog’s pathway is narrower: create big moments, swing exchanges with counters, or find opportunistic grappling sequences. Over many trials, the broader, minute-winning profile usually beats the high-variance profile at this number.

Let’s run the basic math. At 1.65, breakeven is 60.6%. If you believe Musasa wins this fight 63–65% of the time—a reasonable band for a favorite priced here—then a $1 stake has an expected value around +3% to +6%. Payout on a win is approximately $0.65 profit, producing EV near +$0.03 to +$0.06. Flip it to Thicknesse at 2.31: breakeven 43.3%. If the true win rate for the dog is closer to 35–38% (typical for this pricing tier), the $1 EV is negative despite the more attractive headline price.

As for the draw, the sticker of 50.00 implies 2.0%, yet modern major-promo draws are generally well under 1%. Even acknowledging the occasional point deduction or low-output stalemate, that ticket is priced short of the risk and doesn’t merit a stab.

Line-shopping note: if Musasa were to drift meaningfully shorter than 1.65 (say into the -170s), value would compress or vanish; if he nudges closer to -145, value improves. At the current quote, the favorite still grades as the more profitable side.

The pick is straightforward: back the more reliable round-winner. I’m placing the $1 on Josias Musasa moneyline at 1.65, trusting his minute-winning tools and the market-implied edge to do the heavy lifting over three rounds.