Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa — Qwen betting tip 28 September 2025.

When assessing this matchup between Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa, the first thing that jumps out is the disparity in betting odds. Josias Musasa enters as the favorite with odds of 1.65, while Colby Thicknesse is the underdog at 2.31. The draw, at an astronomical 50.00, is essentially a non-factor for practical purposes. While Musasa’s status as the favorite might seem to suggest dominance, there are compelling reasons to believe Colby Thicknesse could offer value in this bout.
In MMA, fighter records and recent performances provide critical insights. Colby Thicknesse has shown gradual improvement in his technique, particularly in grappling and submission defense. His last three fights have demonstrated resilience, even against higher-ranked opponents. He’s not someone who wilts under pressure, and his ability to adapt mid-fight could play a crucial role here. On the flip side, Josias Musasa’s record boasts more wins than Thicknesse’s, but a closer look reveals inconsistencies. Two of his last five victories came against significantly lower-tier opponents, raising questions about how he’ll handle someone like Thicknesse, who poses a more balanced threat.
Another key factor is their fighting styles. Musasa leans heavily on striking, using powerful kicks and punches to overwhelm opponents early. However, if his initial assault doesn’t yield results, he tends to slow down noticeably—a potential vulnerability against Thicknesse, who excels in endurance and stamina. In contrast, Thicknesse employs a methodical approach, focusing on wearing opponents down over time rather than seeking quick finishes. This patience often frustrates aggressive fighters like Musasa, who may tire themselves out trying to force a knockout.
The venue and timing also deserve attention. Scheduled for September 28, 2025, the fight falls during a period when both athletes should theoretically be at peak condition after summer training camps. Yet, there’s an added layer: Musasa has historically struggled with weight cuts, which could impact his performance. If he comes into the bout slightly drained from cutting weight, it would give Thicknesse an even greater edge. Meanwhile, Thicknesse has maintained a consistent weight class without issue, suggesting he’ll enter the octagon fully prepared.">From a statistical perspective, the betting odds present an intriguing opportunity. With Musasa priced at 1.65, you’d need to risk $154 to win just $100—an investment that doesn’t align with his questionable consistency. Conversely, backing Thicknesse at 2.31 offers substantial upside. Even if Thicknesse only wins 40% of the time, the positive expected value makes him a smart wager in the long run. Additionally, given the unpredictable nature of MMA, where upsets are common, siding with the underdog can often yield better returns.">To summarize, while Josias Musasa is undoubtedly skilled and holds the edge in raw power, Colby Thicknesse’s durability, strategic mindset, and ability to exploit weaknesses make him a formidable contender. Betting on Thicknesse provides both value and a realistic chance of securing a profitable outcome. For those looking to maximize earnings in sports betting, sometimes the best move is to bet against the public perception—and in this case, Thicknesse represents that golden opportunity.