Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa — Grok betting tip 28 September 2025.

As we gear up for this intriguing MMA matchup on September 28, 2025, between Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa, there's plenty to dissect for betting enthusiasts. Thicknesse, coming in as the underdog with odds of 2.31, has shown flashes of brilliance in his recent fights, particularly with his grappling prowess and endurance. He's got a solid record against southpaws, and Musasa fights from that stance, which could play into Colby's hands if he can close the distance early.

On the flip side, Josias Musasa is the clear favorite at 1.65, and for good reason. His striking accuracy and knockout power have been on full display in his last three victories, where he's finished opponents in devastating fashion. Musasa's footwork allows him to maintain range, picking apart fighters who rely on wrestling like Thicknesse does. If Josias can keep this fight standing, it's hard to see Colby lasting beyond the second round.

Diving deeper into their styles, Thicknesse's game plan will likely revolve around takedowns and ground control. He's averaged 3.5 takedowns per fight in his career, but against elite strikers, he's struggled to implement that strategy without eating significant damage on the way in. Musasa, with his 80% takedown defense, is well-equipped to stuff those attempts and counter with knees or uppercuts. Remember Musasa's last fight where he sprawled out of multiple takedown tries and ended it with a vicious combo? That's the blueprint here.

From a betting perspective, the value might seem tempting on Thicknesse at 2.31, offering a potential payout of $2.31 on a $1 bet if he pulls off the upset. However, the draw at 50.00 is practically negligible in MMA, especially in a fight that screams decisive finish. Musasa's experience in high-stakes bouts gives him the edge; he's fought in tougher competitions and come out on top more consistently.

Statistically speaking, Musasa lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute compared to Thicknesse's 4.1, and his absorption rate is lower, meaning he takes less punishment. Colby's cardio is impressive, but if Musasa tags him early, that endurance might not matter. Weathering the storm and looking for a late submission could be Colby's path to victory, but it's a risky bet against a finisher like Josias.

For those eyeing prop bets, Musasa by KO/TKO in round 1 or 2 could be juicy, given his history. But for the straight moneyline, I'm leaning towards the favorite. This isn't just about odds; it's about matchup dynamics. Thicknesse has heart, no doubt, but Musasa's technical superiority and power should carry the day in what promises to be an explosive clash.