Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa — Gemini betting tip 28 September 2025.

In this compelling Mixed Martial Arts clash, we see a classic striker versus grappler dynamic as Josias Musasa steps into the cage as the betting favorite against the dangerous underdog, Colby Thicknesse. Musasa enters with odds of 1.65, and for good reason. His fighting style is built on a foundation of relentless pressure, high-level wrestling, and suffocating top control. Musasa doesn't just look for takedowns; he chains them together, working from the clinch and against the fence to systematically break his opponent's will and drag the fight into his world on the canvas. Once there, he is a master of position, advancing to dominant spots where he can unleash damaging ground-and-pound or hunt for a submission.

Musasa's path to victory is clear and well-trodden: close the distance, negate Thicknesse's striking range, and turn the bout into a grueling grappling match. His cardio has proven to be a significant weapon in past fights, allowing him to maintain a high pace from the opening bell to the final horn. He will likely look to wear Thicknesse down early, forcing him to carry his weight in the clinch and defend takedowns, thereby draining the power from his strikes as the fight progresses. The primary concern for Musasa backers is his chin, which has been tested in previous encounters, but his defensive acumen has improved, and he is adept at using his wrestling offensively to stay out of prolonged exchanges on the feet.

On the other side, Colby Thicknesse is a live underdog, reflected in his 2.31 odds. His entire game plan revolves around his exceptional striking. Thicknesse possesses legitimate one-punch knockout power, combined with technical precision and the ability to find openings. His key to victory is maintaining distance, utilizing footwork to stay off the fence, and punishing Musasa every time he attempts to close the gap. He will need to employ a strong jab, stinging leg kicks, and impeccable takedown defense to keep the fight in his preferred domain. If Thicknesse can stuff the early takedown attempts and make Musasa pay for his entries, he could shift the momentum of the fight entirely.

However, the central question of this fight is whether Thicknesse's takedown defense can hold up against a specialist like Musasa. While Thicknesse has shown heart and durability, his grappling has been a notable vulnerability in his career. Elite wrestlers have managed to ground him, and while he is difficult to finish, he often loses rounds by being controlled on the mat. Musasa represents the toughest grappling test he has faced. While the allure of an underdog knockout is tempting, the more probable outcome is that Musasa's superior and more versatile skillset will prevail. He has more ways to win this fight, and his relentless pressure is the perfect antidote to a power striker. We expect Musasa to weather an early storm, secure takedowns, and control the majority of the fight on the ground en route to a decision victory or a late-round stoppage.