Welisson Paiva vs Mateusz Makarowski — DeepSeek betting tip 20 September 2025.

When analyzing this welterweight clash, Paiva's grappling pedigree stands out as the critical factor. The Brazilian holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has secured 6 career submission wins, which directly exploits Makarowski's defensive liabilities on the ground. The Polish striker has been submitted in three of his last five losses, revealing a recurring vulnerability that Paiva's technical ground game can ruthlessly exploit. Makarowski's boxing background offers legitimate knockout threat early, but his tendency to fade in deeper rounds against grapplers remains concerning.

Paiva's recent form further strengthens his case, having won four of his last five bouts against tougher competition levels than Makarowski typically faces. His tactical intelligence in forcing opponents into his comfort zone—whether through clinch work or timely takedowns—creates consistent pathways to victory. While Makarowski's home advantage in Poland provides some intangible boost, it likely won't offset the technical disparity when the fight inevitably hits the mat.

The betting odds reflect this dynamic accurately, with Paiva priced at 1.65 versus Makarowski at 2.15. This implies Paiva wins approximately 60% of the time, a number that seems conservative given his stylistic advantages. Makarowski's puncher's chance keeps this from being a lock, but Paiva's superior fight IQ and pathway to victory make him the value play.