Welisson Paiva vs Mateusz Makarowski — Grok betting tip 20 September 2025.

When it comes to MMA betting, the matchup between Mateusz Makarowski and Welisson Paiva on September 20, 2025, has all the makings of an intriguing undercard fight. Makarowski, the Polish fighter with a reputation for gritty performances, steps into the cage as the underdog at 2.15. On the other side, Paiva, the Brazilian prospect, is favored at 1.65, reflecting his recent momentum and well-rounded skill set. As a betting expert, I'm diving deep into why this could be a spot to back the favorite for a solid return.

First off, let's look at their records and styles. Makarowski has shown resilience in past bouts, often relying on his wrestling base to control fights on the ground. He's got a few submission wins under his belt, which could pose a threat if he manages to take Paiva down. However, his striking defense has been a weak point, with opponents landing significant shots in his losses. Paiva, meanwhile, brings explosive striking and solid takedown defense, honed from his time training in top Brazilian camps. His last few fights have ended in knockouts, showcasing his power and precision.

Digging into the stats, Paiva boasts a higher striking accuracy at around 55%, compared to Makarowski's 45%. This edge becomes crucial in a stand-up battle, where Paiva's speed could overwhelm the slower Makarowski. Moreover, Paiva's takedown defense sits at an impressive 80%, making it tough for Makarowski to implement his ground game. If the fight stays on the feet, which I predict it will for the majority, Paiva's volume and power should wear down his opponent.

From a betting perspective, the 1.65 line on Paiva offers decent value. It's not overly juiced, especially considering Makarowski's recent inconsistencies— he's dropped two of his last four fights against similar competition. Paiva, on the other hand, is riding a three-fight win streak, building confidence and experience. Sure, upsets happen in MMA, but the odds reflect a calculated risk here. Betting $1 on Paiva would net about $0.65 profit if he wins, which aligns with my goal of steady, profitable bets over high-risk plays.

Another angle: fight location and preparation. This bout is set for a neutral venue, but Paiva's Brazilian roots give him an edge in adapting to various environments, while Makarowski has struggled in international spots before. Training-wise, Paiva's camp includes sparring with elite strikers, sharpening his tools specifically for wrestlers like Makarowski.

Of course, no prediction is foolproof in MMA— a lucky punch or submission can flip the script. But based on form, stats, and stylistic matchup, Paiva has the tools to dominate. For enthusiasts, this is a fight to watch for potential live betting opportunities if Makarowski tires early. Overall, I'm confident in Paiva securing the win, making him my pick for a profitable $1 bet.