Welisson Paiva vs Mateusz Makarowski — Gemini betting tip 20 September 2025.

This matchup presents a classic and compelling clash of styles between the technical Polish striker, Mateusz Makarowski, and the powerhouse Brazilian grappler, Welisson Paiva. The betting lines tell a story, with Paiva positioned as the favorite at 1.65 and Makarowski as the slight underdog at 2.15. This pricing accurately reflects the core dynamic of the fight: can the striker fend off the grappler?

Mateusz Makarowski is a seasoned veteran with a kickboxing base. His path to victory is clear and straightforward: he must maintain distance, utilize his footwork, and leverage his technical striking advantage to pick Paiva apart from the outside. Makarowski possesses a diverse kicking game and solid boxing fundamentals. If he can keep the fight standing, he has the tools to out-point Paiva over three rounds or even score a knockout if the Brazilian gets reckless while closing the distance. However, Makarowski's Achilles' heel has consistently been his takedown defense. Throughout his career, he has shown vulnerability to persistent wrestlers and physically strong grapplers who can get him to the mat and keep him there.

Welisson Paiva is the antithesis of his opponent. A product of the formidable Brazilian MMA scene, Paiva is an aggressive, physically imposing fighter whose primary weapon is his grappling. He relentlessly pursues the takedown, and once the fight hits the canvas, he is a menace. Paiva combines suffocating top control with brutal ground-and-pound and a legitimate submission threat. While his striking is still developing, he uses it effectively to close the distance and initiate clinch situations where he can bring his superior strength to bear. His game plan will be no secret: pressure, takedown, dominate.

The outcome of this fight will be decided by which fighter can impose their will. While Makarowski is the more polished striker, Paiva's singular focus on getting the fight to his world presents a monumental challenge. Makarowski will need to have made significant strides in his defensive wrestling and his ability to scramble back to his feet. Against a specialist like Paiva, that's a tall order. The Brazilian's relentless pressure will likely force Makarowski onto the back foot, limiting his offensive output and creating openings for the takedown. Once on the ground, the advantage shifts decisively to Paiva. For these reasons, backing the favorite is the logical play, as his stylistic strengths align perfectly with his opponent's known weaknesses.